Demand for Lithium to Surge 353% by 2040 Amid Scramble for Nigeria’s Deposits

Global demand for lithium is set to more than quadruple by 2040, with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development projecting a 353 per cent increase between 2024 and the end of the next decade.

The projection comes as a global shift to clean energy technologies intensifies pressure on critical mineral supply chains.

The projection, contained in a new UNCTAD report, underscores the mounting strategic importance of energy transition minerals as countries accelerate decarbonisation efforts and electric vehicle (EV) adoption broadens across major economies.

The report notes that clean technologies will command a significantly larger proportion of total mineral demand across several categories. The share of nickel demand linked to clean energy applications is projected to rise from 17 per cent to 42 per cent, while magnet rare earth elements, critical for wind turbines and electric motors, are expected to see their clean technology share increase from 21 per cent to 31 per cent.

The findings carry direct implications for Nigeria, which has emerged as a notable player in the lithium sector. In 2025, the Federal Government disclosed that Chinese firms had invested over $1.3 billion in Nigeria’s lithium processing industry since President Bola Tinubu assumed office — a figure that reflects growing international interest in the country’s mineral assets amid the global energy transition.

Graphite, another key battery material, is forecast to see demand rise by 131 per cent over the same period, while the share of lithium consumption attributable to clean technologies is expected to climb from 62 per cent in 2024 to 87 per cent by 2040.

The surge in projected demand has prompted a wave of export restrictions among resource-rich nations seeking to capture greater value from their mineral endowments rather than export raw materials. According to UNCTAD, nearly 100 new export measures have been imposed on critical energy transition minerals globally since 2020, comprising 37 licensing requirements, 31 export taxes, 29 export bans, and one export quota.

The Democratic Republic of Congo, which holds some of the world’s largest reserves of cobalt and other transition minerals, has introduced the highest number of such measures.

China and Indonesia follow, reflecting the broader geopolitical contest over control of clean energy supply chains.

Lithium is a primary constituent of rechargeable batteries used in electric vehicles and grid-scale energy storage. Graphite serves as the core material in battery anodes, while nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements are integral to the manufacture of wind turbines, power systems, and other low-carbon infrastructure.

UNCTAD’s findings reinforce the view that nations endowed with these resources face both significant opportunity and competitive pressure to develop downstream processing capacity, or risk ceding the economic gains of the energy transition to countries with more advanced industrial ecosystems.