Pecohub Ahead of the 2026 national budget presentation by President Bola Tinubu, the Senate on Tuesday reduced the $64.8 oil price benchmark for the projected N54.46trillion estimate to $60 per barrel but retained all other projections and parameters stated in the 2026 – 2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework, MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper, FSP.
This followed recommendations made to that effect by the Senate Committee on Finance in a report presented by its chairman, Senator Sani Musa (APC Niger East) during extended plenary.
Senator Musa, in his explanation for the reduction, said it was made in recognition of the global geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East and the sensitivity of global crude oil prices.
Recommended adjustments of $64.30 and $65.50 per barrel oil price benchmark for 2027 and 2028 fiscal years to $65 and $70 per barrel respectively by the committee were also approved by the Senate.
It, however, sustained domestic crude oil production projections of 1.84 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, 1.88mbpd for 2027 and 1.92mbpd for 2028, expressing confidence in ongoing reforms and efforts to stabilise output.
On macroeconomic assumptions, the Senate endorsed projected exchange rates of N1,512 to the dollar in 2026, N1,432.15 in 2027 and N1,383.18 in 2028, aligning with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s policy direction to stabilise the naira through effective fiscal and monetary policy coordination.
Inflation is projected to moderate steadily over the medium term, with rates of 16.5 per cent in 2026, 13 per cent in 2027 and 9 per cent in 2028. The committee anchored these projections on the commitment of monetary authorities to tame inflationary pressures.
Similarly, the Senate sustained real GDP growth projections of 4.68 per cent for 2026, 5.96 per cent for 2027 and 7.9 per cent for 2028, citing ongoing economic reforms and the anticipated gains from tax reforms expected to take firmer effect from 2026.
A major plank of the report was the emphasis on effective implementation of newly enacted Tax Acts as veritable instruments for economic reform, growth and development.
In this vein, the committee recommended that the Federal Government implement a National Scanning Policy within the National Single Window of the Nigeria Revenue Service, in collaboration with relevant agencies.
The policy, it said, would enhance revenue assurance, improve trade facilitation, reduce leakages, strengthen transparency and bolster national security.
