China may be on the verge of placing another lucrative order with European aerospace giant Airbus, potentially for at least 100 to 200 new aircraft – even as some Chinese airlines remain heavily reliant on US rival Boeing’s jets.
Europe has emerged as China’s go-to source for overseas commercial aircraft in recent years. Boeing, once a major supplier, has not secured a major order from China since 2017 – casting a shadow over its future in the world’s second-largest economy amid turbulent trade ties between Beijing and Washington.
In that time, the company has also suffered reputational setbacks marked by worker strikes, financial losses and crashes – including the recent Air India disaster that killed at least 270 people aboard a Boeing 787 Dreamliner.
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Now, as Beijing’s geopolitical and aviation safety concerns push Chinese buyers towards Airbus and even the home-grown Comac C919 passenger plane, analysts warn Boeing’s absence from China’s recent plane-buying spree could leave some airlines in the lurch.
“Buying from Airbus makes a lot of sense now, both commercially and diplomatically … But carriers with Boeing-only fleets are caught on the back foot,” said Brian Yang Bo, an aviation industry veteran and independent consultant.
Beijing could reportedly sign the deal with Airbus this month, when European leaders travel to China for a summit. If it goes ahead, it would come hot on the heels of a US$20 billion deal for 160 jets signed just two years ago during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China – pushing Boeing even further out in the cold.
“The new deal could be among the biggest in decades, filling the void left by Boeing. The wind in China is blowing in the direction of Airbus and there’s a clear mandate of support for the C919,” Yang said.
China’s big three airlines have also committed to buying at least 100 C919s. They last ordered from Boeing eight years ago.
Chinese carriers place overseas orders through China Aviation Supplies, with analysts noting their decisions are often influenced by Beijing’s broader diplomatic ties with the West.
Citing sources, the Post reported earlier that China’s rumoured Airbus order may be used to gain diplomatic goodwill from the EU and accelerate regulatory approval for the C919.
According to an Airbus forecast, China will procure 9,520 new aircraft over the next 20 years. But the years-long hiatus in new deals with Boeing, compounded by delivery delays, poses a challenge for some carriers, analysts said.
“The freeze on deals and delivery issues means some airlines are having a hard time replacing old Boeing jets in their fleets at a pace that suits their operational needs,” said Jason Zheng, an analyst with Airwefly, a Shanghai-based aviation news portal and consultancy.
China has several operators with Boeing-only fleets, according to data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China and individual airlines. Shandong Airlines operates 131 Boeing 737s, with an average age of over 11 years. Shanghai Airlines has 83 Boeing planes in service, including eight 787 Dreamliners, while China United Airlines has 59 737s. Both 9 Air and Donghai Airlines have more than 20.
If Trump visits China, I would be surprised if Beijing does not announce purchases from Boeing to sweeten trade ties
Brian Yang Bo, aviation industry veteran and independent consultant
“Boeing-only carriers will grapple more with aircraft ageing, skyrocketing maintenance costs and capacity constraints if the lull in new Boeing deals continues despite the easing of trade tensions between China and the US,” Zheng said.
Switching from Boeing to Airbus or the C919 would take time, said Yang, the independent aviation consultant. “The transition would be costly, complex,” he warned.
Still, he was upbeat that the much-anticipated call between President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in early June could finally mark a turnaround.
In their call, Xi and Trump invited each other to visit their respective countries, though no dates have been fixed.
“If Trump visits China, I would be surprised if Beijing does not announce purchases from Boeing to sweeten trade ties … Of course, Boeing has to put an end to its string of safety issues first and convince Chinese regulators,” Yang said.
Chinese civil aviation authorities could be tallying demand for new Boeing jets and a deal could be in the works, he added.
“Whether and when it comes to fruition may still be determined by the state of Beijing-Washington ties and the geopolitics in play. But I’m optimistic that the next deal won’t be far away.”